Alimera Sciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.0

ALIM Stock  USD 3.86  0.04  1.03%   
Alimera Sciences' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Alimera Sciences. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Alimera Sciences based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Alimera Sciences over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Alimera Sciences' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-07 at 11:49:29 for $1.7 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.8, and an ask price of $1.95. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 163.8. View All Alimera options

Closest to current price Alimera long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Alimera Sciences' future price is the expected price of Alimera Sciences instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alimera Sciences performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Alimera Sciences Backtesting, Alimera Sciences Valuation, Alimera Sciences Correlation, Alimera Sciences Hype Analysis, Alimera Sciences Volatility, Alimera Sciences History as well as Alimera Sciences Performance.
To learn how to invest in Alimera Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alimera Sciences guide.
  
At this time, Alimera Sciences' Price Book Value Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Price To Book Ratio is likely to grow to 2.51, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.30. Please specify Alimera Sciences' target price for which you would like Alimera Sciences odds to be computed.

Alimera Sciences Target Price Odds to finish over 3.0

The tendency of Alimera Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 3.00  in 90 days
 3.86 90 days 3.00 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alimera Sciences to stay above $ 3.00  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alimera Sciences probability density function shows the probability of Alimera Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alimera Sciences price to stay between $ 3.00  and its current price of $3.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.96 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Alimera Sciences has a beta of 0.57. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alimera Sciences average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alimera Sciences will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alimera Sciences has an alpha of 0.0334, implying that it can generate a 0.0334 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Alimera Sciences Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alimera Sciences

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alimera Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alimera Sciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.783.907.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.394.517.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.423.546.65
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.377.007.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alimera Sciences. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alimera Sciences' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alimera Sciences' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alimera Sciences.

Alimera Sciences Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alimera Sciences is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alimera Sciences' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alimera Sciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alimera Sciences within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.57
σ
Overall volatility
0.22
Ir
Information ratio -0.0059

Alimera Sciences Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alimera Sciences for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alimera Sciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alimera Sciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alimera Sciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Alimera Sciences has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (20.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 52 M.
Alimera Sciences currently holds about 7.86 M in cash with (14.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.12.
Alimera Sciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Alimera Sciences Now Covered by Analysts at Maxim Group - Defense World

Alimera Sciences Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alimera Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alimera Sciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alimera Sciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding25.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments12.1 M

Alimera Sciences Technical Analysis

Alimera Sciences' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alimera Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alimera Sciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alimera Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alimera Sciences Predictive Forecast Models

Alimera Sciences' time-series forecasting models is one of many Alimera Sciences' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alimera Sciences' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alimera Sciences

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alimera Sciences for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alimera Sciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alimera Sciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alimera Sciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Alimera Sciences has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (20.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 52 M.
Alimera Sciences currently holds about 7.86 M in cash with (14.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.12.
Alimera Sciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Alimera Sciences Now Covered by Analysts at Maxim Group - Defense World
When determining whether Alimera Sciences is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alimera Sciences' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alimera Sciences' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alimera Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Alimera Stock analysis

When running Alimera Sciences' price analysis, check to measure Alimera Sciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alimera Sciences is operating at the current time. Most of Alimera Sciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alimera Sciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alimera Sciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alimera Sciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alimera Sciences' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alimera Sciences. If investors know Alimera will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alimera Sciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.84)
Revenue Per Share
3.159
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.875
Return On Assets
(0.01)
Return On Equity
(1.59)
The market value of Alimera Sciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alimera that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alimera Sciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alimera Sciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alimera Sciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alimera Sciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alimera Sciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alimera Sciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alimera Sciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.