Alaska Air Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 69.75

ALK Stock  USD 39.87  0.19  0.48%   
Alaska Air's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Alaska Air Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Alaska Air based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Alaska Air Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Alaska Air's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:44:59 for $2.89 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.7, and an ask price of $2.85. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 38.42. View All Alaska options

Closest to current price Alaska long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Alaska Air's future price is the expected price of Alaska Air instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alaska Air Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Alaska Air Backtesting, Alaska Air Valuation, Alaska Air Correlation, Alaska Air Hype Analysis, Alaska Air Volatility, Alaska Air History as well as Alaska Air Performance.
  
At this time, Alaska Air's Price Earnings Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Book Value Ratio is expected to rise to 1.26 this year, although the value of Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is projected to rise to (10.65). Please specify Alaska Air's target price for which you would like Alaska Air odds to be computed.

Alaska Air Target Price Odds to finish below 69.75

The tendency of Alaska Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 69.75  after 90 days
 39.87 90 days 69.75 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alaska Air to stay under $ 69.75  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alaska Air Group probability density function shows the probability of Alaska Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alaska Air Group price to stay between its current price of $ 39.87  and $ 69.75  at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.18 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Alaska Air has a beta of 0.58. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alaska Air average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alaska Air Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alaska Air Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Alaska Air Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alaska Air

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alaska Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alaska Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.7039.8441.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.8844.9447.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
39.1141.2543.40
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.9451.5857.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alaska Air. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alaska Air's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alaska Air's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alaska Air Group.

Alaska Air Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alaska Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alaska Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alaska Air Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alaska Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.58
σ
Overall volatility
1.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Alaska Air Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alaska Air for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alaska Air Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 3.82 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.03, which is OK given its current industry classification. Alaska Air Group has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Alaska Air Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 83.0% of Alaska Air shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: The 5 big threats Boeing faces as CEO departs

Alaska Air Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alaska Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding128.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.8 B

Alaska Air Technical Analysis

Alaska Air's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alaska Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alaska Air Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alaska Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alaska Air Predictive Forecast Models

Alaska Air's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alaska Air's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alaska Air's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alaska Air Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alaska Air for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alaska Air Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 3.82 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.03, which is OK given its current industry classification. Alaska Air Group has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Alaska Air Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 83.0% of Alaska Air shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: The 5 big threats Boeing faces as CEO departs
When determining whether Alaska Air Group is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alaska Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock:

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When running Alaska Air's price analysis, check to measure Alaska Air's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alaska Air is operating at the current time. Most of Alaska Air's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alaska Air's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alaska Air's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alaska Air to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alaska Air's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.484
Earnings Share
1.83
Revenue Per Share
81.853
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.03
Return On Assets
0.0355
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.