Alger Midcap Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 13.93
| AMGAX Fund | USD 13.51 0.15 1.10% |
Alger |
Alger Midcap Target Price Odds to finish over 13.93
The tendency of Alger Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.93 or more in 90 days |
| 13.51 | 90 days | 13.93 | about 34.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alger Midcap to move over $ 13.93 or more in 90 days from now is about 34.96 (This Alger Midcap Growth probability density function shows the probability of Alger Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alger Midcap Growth price to stay between its current price of $ 13.51 and $ 13.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.54 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Alger Midcap has a beta of 0.18. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alger Midcap average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alger Midcap Growth will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alger Midcap Growth has an alpha of 0.0664, implying that it can generate a 0.0664 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alger Midcap Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alger Midcap
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Midcap Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Midcap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alger Midcap Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alger Midcap is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alger Midcap's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alger Midcap Growth, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alger Midcap within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Alger Midcap Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alger Midcap for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alger Midcap Growth can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -4.0% | |
| Alger Midcap Growth holds about 7.29% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Alger Midcap Technical Analysis
Alger Midcap's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alger Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alger Midcap Growth. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alger Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alger Midcap Predictive Forecast Models
Alger Midcap's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alger Midcap's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alger Midcap's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alger Midcap Growth
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alger Midcap for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alger Midcap Growth help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -4.0% | |
| Alger Midcap Growth holds about 7.29% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out Alger Midcap Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Alger Midcap Correlation, Alger Midcap Hype Analysis, Alger Midcap Volatility, Alger Midcap History as well as Alger Midcap Performance. Note that the Alger Midcap Growth information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alger Midcap's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.