Ampco Pittsburgh Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.29

AP Stock  USD 2.11  0.09  4.09%   
Ampco Pittsburgh's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ampco Pittsburgh. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ampco Pittsburgh based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ampco Pittsburgh over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Ampco Pittsburgh's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 13:04:28 for $0.25 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 189.31. View All Ampco options

Closest to current price Ampco long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Ampco Pittsburgh's future price is the expected price of Ampco Pittsburgh instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ampco Pittsburgh performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ampco Pittsburgh Backtesting, Ampco Pittsburgh Valuation, Ampco Pittsburgh Correlation, Ampco Pittsburgh Hype Analysis, Ampco Pittsburgh Volatility, Ampco Pittsburgh History as well as Ampco Pittsburgh Performance.
To learn how to invest in Ampco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ampco Pittsburgh guide.
  
As of 03/28/2024, Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to 0, though Price Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to (1.27). Please specify Ampco Pittsburgh's target price for which you would like Ampco Pittsburgh odds to be computed.

Ampco Pittsburgh Target Price Odds to finish below 5.29

The tendency of Ampco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 5.29  after 90 days
 2.11 90 days 5.29 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ampco Pittsburgh to stay under $ 5.29  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ampco Pittsburgh probability density function shows the probability of Ampco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ampco-Pittsburgh price to stay between its current price of $ 2.11  and $ 5.29  at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.11 . This suggests Ampco Pittsburgh market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ampco Pittsburgh is expected to follow. Additionally Ampco Pittsburgh has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Ampco Pittsburgh Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ampco Pittsburgh

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ampco-Pittsburgh. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ampco Pittsburgh's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.112.115.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.285.96
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.042.205.88
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.555.005.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ampco Pittsburgh. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ampco Pittsburgh's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ampco Pittsburgh's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ampco-Pittsburgh.

Ampco Pittsburgh Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ampco Pittsburgh is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ampco Pittsburgh's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ampco Pittsburgh, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ampco Pittsburgh within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.44
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.11
σ
Overall volatility
0.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Ampco Pittsburgh Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ampco Pittsburgh for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ampco-Pittsburgh can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ampco-Pittsburgh generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ampco-Pittsburgh has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company generated the yearly revenue of 415.32 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (38.12 M) with gross profit of 62.19 M.
Ampco Pittsburgh reports about 8.73 M in cash with (3.69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.38.
Roughly 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ampco Pittsburgh Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ampco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ampco Pittsburgh's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ampco Pittsburgh's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding19.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments7.3 M

Ampco Pittsburgh Technical Analysis

Ampco Pittsburgh's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ampco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ampco Pittsburgh. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ampco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ampco Pittsburgh Predictive Forecast Models

Ampco Pittsburgh's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ampco Pittsburgh's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ampco Pittsburgh's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ampco-Pittsburgh

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ampco Pittsburgh for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ampco-Pittsburgh help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ampco-Pittsburgh generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ampco-Pittsburgh has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company generated the yearly revenue of 415.32 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (38.12 M) with gross profit of 62.19 M.
Ampco Pittsburgh reports about 8.73 M in cash with (3.69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.38.
Roughly 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
When determining whether Ampco-Pittsburgh is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Ampco Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Ampco Pittsburgh Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Ampco Pittsburgh Stock:
Check out Ampco Pittsburgh Backtesting, Ampco Pittsburgh Valuation, Ampco Pittsburgh Correlation, Ampco Pittsburgh Hype Analysis, Ampco Pittsburgh Volatility, Ampco Pittsburgh History as well as Ampco Pittsburgh Performance.
To learn how to invest in Ampco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ampco Pittsburgh guide.
You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Ampco Stock analysis

When running Ampco Pittsburgh's price analysis, check to measure Ampco Pittsburgh's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ampco Pittsburgh is operating at the current time. Most of Ampco Pittsburgh's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ampco Pittsburgh's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ampco Pittsburgh's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ampco Pittsburgh to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ampco Pittsburgh's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ampco Pittsburgh. If investors know Ampco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ampco Pittsburgh listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.31)
Earnings Share
0.08
Revenue Per Share
21.529
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.156
Return On Assets
0.0129
The market value of Ampco-Pittsburgh is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ampco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ampco Pittsburgh's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ampco Pittsburgh's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ampco Pittsburgh's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ampco Pittsburgh's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ampco Pittsburgh's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ampco Pittsburgh is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ampco Pittsburgh's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.