Ashland Global Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 77.64

ASH Stock  USD 97.37  0.24  0.25%   
Ashland Global's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ashland Global Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ashland Global based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ashland Global Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $95.0 is a CALL option contract on Ashland Global's common stock with a strick price of 95.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-21 at 09:32:07 for $3.66 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.5, and an ask price of $3.6. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 15.29. View All Ashland options

Closest to current price Ashland long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Ashland Global's future price is the expected price of Ashland Global instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ashland Global Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ashland Global Backtesting, Ashland Global Valuation, Ashland Global Correlation, Ashland Global Hype Analysis, Ashland Global Volatility, Ashland Global History as well as Ashland Global Performance.
  
As of now, Ashland Global's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is increasing as compared to previous years. The Ashland Global's current Price To Book Ratio is estimated to increase to 1.32, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 20.79. Please specify Ashland Global's target price for which you would like Ashland Global odds to be computed.

Ashland Global Target Price Odds to finish below 77.64

The tendency of Ashland Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 77.64  or more in 90 days
 97.37 90 days 77.64 
nearly 4.7
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ashland Global to drop to $ 77.64  or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.7 (This Ashland Global Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Ashland Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ashland Global Holdings price to stay between $ 77.64  and its current price of $97.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.42 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Ashland Global has a beta of 0.2. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ashland Global average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ashland Global Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ashland Global Holdings has an alpha of 0.1937, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Ashland Global Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ashland Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashland Global Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashland Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
95.0597.3799.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
85.3187.63107.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
94.4496.7699.08
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
90.0098.90109.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ashland Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ashland Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ashland Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ashland Global Holdings.

Ashland Global Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ashland Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ashland Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ashland Global Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ashland Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.20
σ
Overall volatility
6.79
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

Ashland Global Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ashland Global for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ashland Global Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of March 2024 Ashland Global paid $ 0.385 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from cleantechnica.com: The Awards For Chemical Refining Decarbonization Go To

Ashland Global Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ashland Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ashland Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashland Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding54 M
Cash And Short Term Investments417 M

Ashland Global Technical Analysis

Ashland Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ashland Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ashland Global Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ashland Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ashland Global Predictive Forecast Models

Ashland Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ashland Global's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ashland Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ashland Global Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ashland Global for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ashland Global Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of March 2024 Ashland Global paid $ 0.385 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from cleantechnica.com: The Awards For Chemical Refining Decarbonization Go To
When determining whether Ashland Global Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ashland Global's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ashland Global Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ashland Global Holdings Stock:

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When running Ashland Global's price analysis, check to measure Ashland Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashland Global is operating at the current time. Most of Ashland Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashland Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashland Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashland Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ashland Global's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashland Global. If investors know Ashland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashland Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.31)
Dividend Share
1.49
Earnings Share
2.91
Revenue Per Share
40.938
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
The market value of Ashland Global Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashland Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashland Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashland Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashland Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashland Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ashland Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashland Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.