Saranacentral Bajatama (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 160.0

BAJA Stock  IDR 104.00  2.00  1.89%   
Saranacentral Bajatama's future price is the expected price of Saranacentral Bajatama instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Saranacentral Bajatama Backtesting, Saranacentral Bajatama Valuation, Saranacentral Bajatama Correlation, Saranacentral Bajatama Hype Analysis, Saranacentral Bajatama Volatility, Saranacentral Bajatama History as well as Saranacentral Bajatama Performance.
  
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Saranacentral Bajatama Target Price Odds to finish below 160.0

The tendency of Saranacentral Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  160.00  after 90 days
 104.00 90 days 160.00 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Saranacentral Bajatama to stay under  160.00  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Saranacentral Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Saranacentral Bajatama price to stay between its current price of  104.00  and  160.00  at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Saranacentral Bajatama has a beta of 0.28 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Saranacentral Bajatama average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Saranacentral Bajatama Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Saranacentral Bajatama

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saranacentral Bajatama. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Saranacentral Bajatama's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.22104.00105.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
91.8293.60114.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
99.89101.67103.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
103.45105.33107.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Saranacentral Bajatama. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Saranacentral Bajatama's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Saranacentral Bajatama's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Saranacentral Bajatama.

Saranacentral Bajatama Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Saranacentral Bajatama is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Saranacentral Bajatama's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Saranacentral Bajatama within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.3
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.28
σ
Overall volatility
8.69
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

Saranacentral Bajatama Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Saranacentral Bajatama for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Saranacentral Bajatama can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Saranacentral Bajatama generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 78.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Saranacentral Bajatama Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Saranacentral Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Saranacentral Bajatama's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saranacentral Bajatama's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.8 B
Cash And Short Term Investments129.3 B

Saranacentral Bajatama Technical Analysis

Saranacentral Bajatama's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Saranacentral Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Saranacentral Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Saranacentral Bajatama Predictive Forecast Models

Saranacentral Bajatama's time-series forecasting models is one of many Saranacentral Bajatama's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Saranacentral Bajatama's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Saranacentral Bajatama

Checking the ongoing alerts about Saranacentral Bajatama for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Saranacentral Bajatama help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Saranacentral Bajatama generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 78.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

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When running Saranacentral Bajatama's price analysis, check to measure Saranacentral Bajatama's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saranacentral Bajatama is operating at the current time. Most of Saranacentral Bajatama's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saranacentral Bajatama's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saranacentral Bajatama's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saranacentral Bajatama to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Saranacentral Bajatama's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Saranacentral Bajatama is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saranacentral Bajatama's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.