Biogen Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 303.55
| BIIB Stock | USD 194.38 3.86 2.03% |
Closest to current price Biogen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Biogen |
Biogen Target Price Odds to finish below 303.55
The tendency of Biogen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 303.55 after 90 days |
| 194.38 | 90 days | 303.55 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Biogen to stay under $ 303.55 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Biogen Inc probability density function shows the probability of Biogen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Biogen Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 194.38 and $ 303.55 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.35 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Biogen will likely underperform. Additionally Biogen Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Biogen Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Biogen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biogen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Biogen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Biogen Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Biogen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Biogen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Biogen Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Biogen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.46 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.28 |
Biogen Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Biogen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Biogen Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Biogen Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Biogen Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Sage Therapeutics stock holds Market Perform amid setbacks |
Biogen Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Biogen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Biogen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Biogen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Biogen Technical Analysis
Biogen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Biogen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Biogen Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Biogen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Biogen Predictive Forecast Models
Biogen's time-series forecasting models is one of many Biogen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Biogen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Biogen Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Biogen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Biogen Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Biogen Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Biogen Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Sage Therapeutics stock holds Market Perform amid setbacks |
Check out Biogen Backtesting, Biogen Valuation, Biogen Correlation, Biogen Hype Analysis, Biogen Volatility, Biogen History as well as Biogen Performance. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Biogen Stock analysis
When running Biogen's price analysis, check to measure Biogen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Biogen is operating at the current time. Most of Biogen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Biogen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Biogen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Biogen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Biogen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biogen. If investors know Biogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biogen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Earnings Share 7.97 | Revenue Per Share 67.972 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets 0.0458 |
The market value of Biogen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biogen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biogen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biogen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biogen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biogen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.