Blackbaud Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 108.89
| BLKB Stock | USD 76.71 0.81 1.04% |
Closest to current price Blackbaud long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Blackbaud |
Blackbaud Target Price Odds to finish below 108.89
The tendency of Blackbaud Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 108.89 after 90 days |
| 76.71 | 90 days | 108.89 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Blackbaud to stay under $ 108.89 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Blackbaud probability density function shows the probability of Blackbaud Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Blackbaud price to stay between its current price of $ 76.71 and $ 108.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.12 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.06 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Blackbaud will likely underperform. Additionally Blackbaud has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Blackbaud Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Blackbaud
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blackbaud. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blackbaud's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Blackbaud Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Blackbaud is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Blackbaud's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Blackbaud, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Blackbaud within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Blackbaud Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Blackbaud for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Blackbaud can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Blackbaud generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 819.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.38, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Blackbaud has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Blackbaud until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Blackbaud's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Blackbaud sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Blackbaud to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Blackbaud's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 96.0% of Blackbaud shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Blackbaud to Transform the Future of Fundraising with Trailblazing Enhancements for Raisers Edge NXT |
Blackbaud Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Blackbaud Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Blackbaud's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blackbaud's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 728.3 M |
Blackbaud Technical Analysis
Blackbaud's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Blackbaud Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Blackbaud. In general, you should focus on analyzing Blackbaud Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Blackbaud Predictive Forecast Models
Blackbaud's time-series forecasting models is one of many Blackbaud's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Blackbaud's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Blackbaud
Checking the ongoing alerts about Blackbaud for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Blackbaud help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Blackbaud generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 819.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.38, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Blackbaud has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Blackbaud until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Blackbaud's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Blackbaud sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Blackbaud to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Blackbaud's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 96.0% of Blackbaud shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Blackbaud to Transform the Future of Fundraising with Trailblazing Enhancements for Raisers Edge NXT |
Check out Blackbaud Backtesting, Blackbaud Valuation, Blackbaud Correlation, Blackbaud Hype Analysis, Blackbaud Volatility, Blackbaud History as well as Blackbaud Performance. For information on how to trade Blackbaud Stock refer to our How to Trade Blackbaud Stock guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
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When running Blackbaud's price analysis, check to measure Blackbaud's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blackbaud is operating at the current time. Most of Blackbaud's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blackbaud's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blackbaud's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blackbaud to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blackbaud's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blackbaud. If investors know Blackbaud will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blackbaud listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.3 | Earnings Share 0.03 | Revenue Per Share 21.037 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.074 | Return On Assets 0.0237 |
The market value of Blackbaud is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blackbaud that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blackbaud's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blackbaud's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blackbaud's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blackbaud's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blackbaud's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blackbaud is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blackbaud's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.