Bpost NV (Belgium) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.1

BPOST Stock  EUR 3.46  0.06  1.76%   
Bpost NV's future price is the expected price of Bpost NV instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Bpost NV performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Bpost NV Backtesting, Bpost NV Valuation, Bpost NV Correlation, Bpost NV Hype Analysis, Bpost NV Volatility, Bpost NV History as well as Bpost NV Performance.
  
Please specify Bpost NV's target price for which you would like Bpost NV odds to be computed.

Bpost NV Target Price Odds to finish below 18.1

The tendency of Bpost Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under € 18.10  after 90 days
 3.46 90 days 18.10 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bpost NV to stay under € 18.10  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Bpost NV probability density function shows the probability of Bpost Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bpost NV price to stay between its current price of € 3.46  and € 18.10  at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.52 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bpost NV has a beta of -0.33 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Bpost NV are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Bpost NV is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bpost NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Bpost NV Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Bpost NV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bpost NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bpost NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.063.465.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.703.105.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bpost NV. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bpost NV's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bpost NV's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bpost NV.

Bpost NV Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bpost NV is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bpost NV's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bpost NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bpost NV within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.43
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.33
σ
Overall volatility
0.47
Ir
Information ratio -0.25

Bpost NV Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bpost NV for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bpost NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bpost NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Bpost NV has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Bpost NV Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bpost Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bpost NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bpost NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding200 M
Cash And Short Term Investments907.5 M

Bpost NV Technical Analysis

Bpost NV's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bpost Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bpost NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bpost Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Bpost NV Predictive Forecast Models

Bpost NV's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bpost NV's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bpost NV's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Bpost NV

Checking the ongoing alerts about Bpost NV for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bpost NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bpost NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Bpost NV has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Check out Bpost NV Backtesting, Bpost NV Valuation, Bpost NV Correlation, Bpost NV Hype Analysis, Bpost NV Volatility, Bpost NV History as well as Bpost NV Performance.
You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Bpost Stock analysis

When running Bpost NV's price analysis, check to measure Bpost NV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bpost NV is operating at the current time. Most of Bpost NV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bpost NV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bpost NV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bpost NV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Bpost NV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bpost NV is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bpost NV's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.