CONTACT ENERGY (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.4

BZB Stock  EUR 4.74  0.06  1.28%   
CONTACT ENERGY's future price is the expected price of CONTACT ENERGY instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CONTACT ENERGY performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CONTACT ENERGY Backtesting, CONTACT ENERGY Valuation, CONTACT ENERGY Correlation, CONTACT ENERGY Hype Analysis, CONTACT ENERGY Volatility, CONTACT ENERGY History as well as CONTACT ENERGY Performance.
  
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CONTACT ENERGY Target Price Odds to finish over 3.4

The tendency of CONTACT Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above € 3.40  in 90 days
 4.74 90 days 3.40 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CONTACT ENERGY to stay above € 3.40  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This CONTACT ENERGY probability density function shows the probability of CONTACT Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CONTACT ENERGY price to stay between € 3.40  and its current price of €4.74 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CONTACT ENERGY has a beta of 0.26 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CONTACT ENERGY average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CONTACT ENERGY will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CONTACT ENERGY has an alpha of 0.0505, implying that it can generate a 0.0505 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CONTACT ENERGY Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CONTACT ENERGY

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONTACT ENERGY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CONTACT ENERGY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.584.745.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.484.645.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
3.604.775.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.664.714.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CONTACT ENERGY. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CONTACT ENERGY's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CONTACT ENERGY's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CONTACT ENERGY.

CONTACT ENERGY Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CONTACT ENERGY is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CONTACT ENERGY's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CONTACT ENERGY, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CONTACT ENERGY within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.05
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.26
σ
Overall volatility
0.09
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

CONTACT ENERGY Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CONTACT Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CONTACT ENERGY's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CONTACT ENERGY's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding780.6 M
Dividend Yield0.0728
Short Long Term Debt287 M

CONTACT ENERGY Technical Analysis

CONTACT ENERGY's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CONTACT Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CONTACT ENERGY. In general, you should focus on analyzing CONTACT Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CONTACT ENERGY Predictive Forecast Models

CONTACT ENERGY's time-series forecasting models is one of many CONTACT ENERGY's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CONTACT ENERGY's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CONTACT ENERGY in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CONTACT ENERGY's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CONTACT ENERGY options trading.
Check out CONTACT ENERGY Backtesting, CONTACT ENERGY Valuation, CONTACT ENERGY Correlation, CONTACT ENERGY Hype Analysis, CONTACT ENERGY Volatility, CONTACT ENERGY History as well as CONTACT ENERGY Performance.
Note that the CONTACT ENERGY information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CONTACT ENERGY's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for CONTACT Stock analysis

When running CONTACT ENERGY's price analysis, check to measure CONTACT ENERGY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CONTACT ENERGY is operating at the current time. Most of CONTACT ENERGY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CONTACT ENERGY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CONTACT ENERGY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CONTACT ENERGY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between CONTACT ENERGY's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CONTACT ENERGY is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CONTACT ENERGY's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.