CA Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 33.86

CA Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 35.06  0.28  0.79%

CA probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of CA Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify CA time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like CA odds to be computed. Check also CA Backtesting, CA Valuation, CA Correlation, CA Hype Analysis, CA Volatility, CA History as well as CA Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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CA Target Price Odds to finish below 33.86

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 35.06 30 days 33.86  about 83.15% about 16.58%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of CA to drop to $ 33.86  or more in 30 days from now is about 16.58%. Probability of CA Inc price to stay between $ 33.86  and its current price of $35.06 at the end of the 30-day period is about 50.29%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, CA has beta of 0.8256 . This suggests as returns on market go up, CA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding CA Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CA Inc has an alpha of 0.29250401149090904 implying that it can potentially generate 0.29250401149090904% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
17.0%
Odds to drop to $ 33.86  or more in 30 days
 CA Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.29
β
Beta against DOW=0.83
σ
Overall volatility
=0.85
Ir
Information ratio =0.20