Morgan Stanley China Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 20.995

CAF Fund  USD 11.94  0.07  0.58%   
Morgan Stanley's future price is the expected price of Morgan Stanley instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Morgan Stanley China performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Morgan Stanley Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Morgan Stanley Correlation, Morgan Stanley Hype Analysis, Morgan Stanley Volatility, Morgan Stanley History as well as Morgan Stanley Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Morgan Fund please use our How to Invest in Morgan Stanley guide.
  
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Morgan Stanley Target Price Odds to finish over 20.995

The tendency of Morgan Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 21.00  or more in 90 days
 11.94 90 days 21.00 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Morgan Stanley to move over $ 21.00  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Morgan Stanley China probability density function shows the probability of Morgan Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Morgan Stanley China price to stay between its current price of $ 11.94  and $ 21.00  at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Morgan Stanley has a beta of 0.29 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Morgan Stanley average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Morgan Stanley China will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Morgan Stanley China has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Morgan Stanley Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Morgan Stanley

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Stanley China. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Morgan Stanley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.5211.9413.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6712.0913.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.7512.1713.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.9011.9612.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Morgan Stanley. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Morgan Stanley's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Morgan Stanley's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Morgan Stanley China.

Morgan Stanley Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Morgan Stanley is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Morgan Stanley's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Morgan Stanley China, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Morgan Stanley within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.29
σ
Overall volatility
0.34
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Morgan Stanley Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Morgan Stanley for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Morgan Stanley China can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Morgan Stanley China generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: CAF issues US300 million from new Uruguayan infrastructure fund - Latin Lawyer
Morgan Stanley China generated five year return of -8.0%

Morgan Stanley Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Morgan Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Morgan Stanley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Morgan Stanley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis

Morgan Stanley's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Morgan Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Morgan Stanley China. In general, you should focus on analyzing Morgan Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Morgan Stanley Predictive Forecast Models

Morgan Stanley's time-series forecasting models is one of many Morgan Stanley's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Morgan Stanley's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Morgan Stanley China

Checking the ongoing alerts about Morgan Stanley for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Morgan Stanley China help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Morgan Stanley China generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: CAF issues US300 million from new Uruguayan infrastructure fund - Latin Lawyer
Morgan Stanley China generated five year return of -8.0%
Check out Morgan Stanley Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Morgan Stanley Correlation, Morgan Stanley Hype Analysis, Morgan Stanley Volatility, Morgan Stanley History as well as Morgan Stanley Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Morgan Fund please use our How to Invest in Morgan Stanley guide.
Note that the Morgan Stanley China information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Morgan Stanley's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Morgan Fund analysis

When running Morgan Stanley's price analysis, check to measure Morgan Stanley's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Morgan Stanley is operating at the current time. Most of Morgan Stanley's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Morgan Stanley's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Morgan Stanley's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Morgan Stanley to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Morgan Stanley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Morgan Stanley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Morgan Stanley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.