Chesapeake Energy Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.17

CHK Stock  USD 87.73  2.00  2.33%   
Chesapeake Energy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Chesapeake Energy Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Chesapeake Energy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Chesapeake Energy Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $87.5 is a CALL option contract on Chesapeake Energy's common stock with a strick price of 87.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:03:15 for $2.12 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.95, and an ask price of $2.1. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 21.4. View All Chesapeake options

Closest to current price Chesapeake long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Chesapeake Energy's future price is the expected price of Chesapeake Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Chesapeake Energy Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Chesapeake Energy Backtesting, Chesapeake Energy Valuation, Chesapeake Energy Correlation, Chesapeake Energy Hype Analysis, Chesapeake Energy Volatility, Chesapeake Energy History as well as Chesapeake Energy Performance.
For more information on how to buy Chesapeake Stock please use our How to buy in Chesapeake Stock guide.
  
At this time, Chesapeake Energy's Price To Book Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Cash Flow Ratio is expected to rise to 4,853 this year, although the value of Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to rise to (43.22). Please specify Chesapeake Energy's target price for which you would like Chesapeake Energy odds to be computed.

Chesapeake Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 27.17

The tendency of Chesapeake Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 27.17  or more in 90 days
 87.73 90 days 27.17 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chesapeake Energy to drop to $ 27.17  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Chesapeake Energy Corp probability density function shows the probability of Chesapeake Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chesapeake Energy Corp price to stay between $ 27.17  and its current price of $87.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Chesapeake Energy has a beta of 0.98 suggesting Chesapeake Energy Corp market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Chesapeake Energy is expected to follow. Additionally Chesapeake Energy Corp has an alpha of 0.0848, implying that it can generate a 0.0848 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Chesapeake Energy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chesapeake Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chesapeake Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
86.2788.0889.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.9689.9191.72
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
87.4989.3091.11
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
97.37107.00118.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chesapeake Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chesapeake Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chesapeake Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Chesapeake Energy Corp.

Chesapeake Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chesapeake Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chesapeake Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chesapeake Energy Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chesapeake Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.98
σ
Overall volatility
3.68
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

Chesapeake Energy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chesapeake Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chesapeake Energy Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 2.11 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.43, which is OK given its current industry classification. Chesapeake Energy Corp has a current ratio of 0.48, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Chesapeake Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Chesapeake Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Chesapeake Energy Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Chesapeake to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Chesapeake Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Chesapeake Energy has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 95.0% of Chesapeake Energy shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 26th of March 2024 Chesapeake Energy paid $ 0.575 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Disposition of 1017 shares by Gregory Larson of Chesapeake Energy subject to Rule 16b-3

Chesapeake Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chesapeake Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chesapeake Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chesapeake Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding143 B
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B

Chesapeake Energy Technical Analysis

Chesapeake Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chesapeake Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chesapeake Energy Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chesapeake Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chesapeake Energy Predictive Forecast Models

Chesapeake Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chesapeake Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chesapeake Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chesapeake Energy Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chesapeake Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chesapeake Energy Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 2.11 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.43, which is OK given its current industry classification. Chesapeake Energy Corp has a current ratio of 0.48, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Chesapeake Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Chesapeake Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Chesapeake Energy Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Chesapeake to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Chesapeake Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Chesapeake Energy has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 95.0% of Chesapeake Energy shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 26th of March 2024 Chesapeake Energy paid $ 0.575 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Disposition of 1017 shares by Gregory Larson of Chesapeake Energy subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Chesapeake Energy Corp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Chesapeake Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Chesapeake Energy Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Chesapeake Energy Corp Stock:
Check out Chesapeake Energy Backtesting, Chesapeake Energy Valuation, Chesapeake Energy Correlation, Chesapeake Energy Hype Analysis, Chesapeake Energy Volatility, Chesapeake Energy History as well as Chesapeake Energy Performance.
For more information on how to buy Chesapeake Stock please use our How to buy in Chesapeake Stock guide.
Note that the Chesapeake Energy Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Chesapeake Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Chesapeake Energy's price analysis, check to measure Chesapeake Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chesapeake Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Chesapeake Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chesapeake Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chesapeake Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chesapeake Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chesapeake Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chesapeake Energy. If investors know Chesapeake will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chesapeake Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.83)
Dividend Share
3.62
Earnings Share
16.92
Revenue Per Share
45.521
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.59)
The market value of Chesapeake Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chesapeake that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chesapeake Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chesapeake Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chesapeake Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chesapeake Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chesapeake Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chesapeake Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chesapeake Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.