China Southern Airlines Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 1.1
| CHKIF Stock | USD 0.30 0.04 11.76% |
China |
China Southern Target Price Odds to finish over 1.1
The tendency of China Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 1.10 or more in 90 days |
| 0.30 | 90 days | 1.10 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Southern to move over $ 1.10 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This China Southern Airlines probability density function shows the probability of China Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Southern Airlines price to stay between its current price of $ 0.30 and $ 1.10 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 2.18 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, China Southern will likely underperform. Additionally China Southern Airlines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. China Southern Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Southern Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Southern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Southern Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Southern is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Southern's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Southern Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Southern within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.52 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
China Southern Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Southern for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Southern Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Southern generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| China Southern has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| China Southern has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| The company has accumulated 38.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. China Southern Airlines has a current ratio of 0.29, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Southern until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Southern's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Southern Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Southern's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 101.64 B. Net Loss for the year was (12.1 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.62 B). | |
| About 63.0% of China Southern shares are held by company insiders |
China Southern Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.9 B |
China Southern Technical Analysis
China Southern's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Southern Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Southern Predictive Forecast Models
China Southern's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Southern's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Southern's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Southern Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Southern for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Southern Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Southern generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| China Southern has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| China Southern has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| The company has accumulated 38.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. China Southern Airlines has a current ratio of 0.29, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Southern until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Southern's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Southern Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Southern's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 101.64 B. Net Loss for the year was (12.1 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.62 B). | |
| About 63.0% of China Southern shares are held by company insiders |
Check out China Southern Backtesting, China Southern Valuation, China Southern Correlation, China Southern Hype Analysis, China Southern Volatility, China Southern History as well as China Southern Performance. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for China Pink Sheet analysis
When running China Southern's price analysis, check to measure China Southern's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Southern is operating at the current time. Most of China Southern's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Southern's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Southern's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Southern to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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