Canadian Imperial Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 88.9

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce -- USA Stock  

USD 86.54  0.71  0.81%

Canadian Imperial probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Canadian Imperial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Canadian Imperial odds to be computed. Check also Canadian Imperial Backtesting, Canadian Imperial Valuation, Canadian Imperial Correlation, Canadian Imperial Hype Analysis, Canadian Imperial Volatility, Canadian Imperial History as well as Canadian Imperial Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Canadian Imperial Target Price Odds to finish below 88.9

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 86.54 30 days 88.90  about 65.32% about 34.22%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian Imperial to stay under $ 88.90  after 30 days from now is about 34.22% (This Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Imperial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Canadian Imperial Bank price to stay between its current price of $ 86.54  and $ 88.90  at the end of the 30-day period is about 29.27%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Canadian Imperial has beta of 0.1006 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Canadian Imperial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
34.0%
Odds to stay under $ 88.90  after 30 days
 Canadian Imperial Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.12
β
Beta against DOW=0.10
σ
Overall volatility
=1.95
Ir
Information ratio =0.04

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