Canadian Imperial Bank Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 89.56

CM Stock  USD 50.07  0.43  0.87%   
Canadian Imperial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Canadian Imperial Bank. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Canadian Imperial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Canadian Imperial Bank over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $50.0 is a CALL option contract on Canadian Imperial's common stock with a strick price of 50.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 12:49:44 for $0.65 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.75, and an ask price of $0.9. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 16.06. View All Canadian options

Closest to current price Canadian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Canadian Imperial's future price is the expected price of Canadian Imperial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Canadian Imperial Bank performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Canadian Imperial Backtesting, Canadian Imperial Valuation, Canadian Imperial Correlation, Canadian Imperial Hype Analysis, Canadian Imperial Volatility, Canadian Imperial History as well as Canadian Imperial Performance.
  
At this time, Canadian Imperial's Price Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Fair Value is likely to grow to 1.86, though Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (0.33). Please specify Canadian Imperial's target price for which you would like Canadian Imperial odds to be computed.

Canadian Imperial Target Price Odds to finish over 89.56

The tendency of Canadian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 89.56  or more in 90 days
 50.07 90 days 89.56 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian Imperial to move over $ 89.56  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Canadian Imperial Bank probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Canadian Imperial Bank price to stay between its current price of $ 50.07  and $ 89.56  at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.21 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.19 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Canadian Imperial will likely underperform. Additionally Canadian Imperial Bank has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Canadian Imperial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Canadian Imperial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Imperial Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canadian Imperial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.0650.0851.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.7746.7955.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
48.1149.1350.14
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.7844.8149.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Canadian Imperial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Canadian Imperial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Canadian Imperial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Canadian Imperial Bank.

Canadian Imperial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Canadian Imperial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Canadian Imperial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Canadian Imperial Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Canadian Imperial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.19
σ
Overall volatility
1.76
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Canadian Imperial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Canadian Imperial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Canadian Imperial Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Canadian Imperial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC. EXTENDS REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES

Canadian Imperial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Canadian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Canadian Imperial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Imperial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding916.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments80.5 B

Canadian Imperial Technical Analysis

Canadian Imperial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Canadian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Canadian Imperial Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Canadian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Canadian Imperial Predictive Forecast Models

Canadian Imperial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Canadian Imperial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Canadian Imperial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Canadian Imperial Bank

Checking the ongoing alerts about Canadian Imperial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Canadian Imperial Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Canadian Imperial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC. EXTENDS REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES
When determining whether Canadian Imperial Bank is a strong investment it is important to analyze Canadian Imperial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Canadian Imperial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Canadian Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Canadian Stock analysis

When running Canadian Imperial's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Imperial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Imperial is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Imperial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Imperial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Imperial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Imperial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Canadian Imperial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Canadian Imperial. If investors know Canadian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Canadian Imperial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.559
Dividend Share
3.49
Earnings Share
4.8
Revenue Per Share
23.121
Return On Assets
0.0067
The market value of Canadian Imperial Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Canadian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Canadian Imperial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Canadian Imperial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Canadian Imperial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Canadian Imperial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Canadian Imperial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canadian Imperial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canadian Imperial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.