Cummins Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 154.67

CMI Stock  USD 294.65  0.04  0.01%   
Cummins' future price is the expected price of Cummins instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cummins performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Cummins Backtesting, Cummins Valuation, Cummins Correlation, Cummins Hype Analysis, Cummins Volatility, Cummins History as well as Cummins Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Cummins Stock please use our How to Invest in Cummins guide.
  
Please specify Cummins' target price for which you would like Cummins odds to be computed.

Cummins Target Price Odds to finish below 154.67

The tendency of Cummins Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 154.67  or more in 90 days
 294.65 90 days 154.67 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cummins to drop to $ 154.67  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cummins probability density function shows the probability of Cummins Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cummins price to stay between $ 154.67  and its current price of $294.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.04 suggesting Cummins market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Cummins is expected to follow. Additionally Cummins has an alpha of 0.215, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Cummins Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cummins

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cummins. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cummins' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
293.22294.65296.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
265.19327.96329.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
304.68306.12307.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
256.65277.02297.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cummins. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cummins' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cummins' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cummins.

Cummins Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cummins is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cummins' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cummins, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cummins within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.21
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.04
σ
Overall volatility
19.53
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Cummins Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cummins for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cummins can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 7th of March 2024 Cummins paid $ 1.68 per share dividend to its current shareholders

Cummins Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cummins Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cummins' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cummins' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding142.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.7 B

Cummins Technical Analysis

Cummins' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cummins Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cummins. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cummins Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cummins Predictive Forecast Models

Cummins' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cummins' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cummins' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cummins

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cummins for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cummins help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 7th of March 2024 Cummins paid $ 1.68 per share dividend to its current shareholders
When determining whether Cummins offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cummins' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cummins Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cummins Stock:
Check out Cummins Backtesting, Cummins Valuation, Cummins Correlation, Cummins Hype Analysis, Cummins Volatility, Cummins History as well as Cummins Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Cummins Stock please use our How to Invest in Cummins guide.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Cummins Stock analysis

When running Cummins' price analysis, check to measure Cummins' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cummins is operating at the current time. Most of Cummins' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cummins' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cummins' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cummins to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cummins' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cummins. If investors know Cummins will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cummins listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Cummins is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cummins that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cummins' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cummins' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cummins' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cummins' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cummins' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cummins is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cummins' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.