Canadian Solar Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.33

CSIQ Stock  USD 19.40  1.42  7.90%   
Canadian Solar's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Canadian Solar. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Canadian Solar based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Canadian Solar over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $19.5 is a CALL option contract on Canadian Solar's common stock with a strick price of 19.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:28:26 for $0.15 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.15, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 48.31. View All Canadian options

Closest to current price Canadian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Canadian Solar's future price is the expected price of Canadian Solar instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Canadian Solar performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Canadian Solar Backtesting, Canadian Solar Valuation, Canadian Solar Correlation, Canadian Solar Hype Analysis, Canadian Solar Volatility, Canadian Solar History as well as Canadian Solar Performance.
To learn how to invest in Canadian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Canadian Solar guide.
  
As of 03/28/2024, Price Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 6.57, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 0.21. Please specify Canadian Solar's target price for which you would like Canadian Solar odds to be computed.

Canadian Solar Target Price Odds to finish below 15.33

The tendency of Canadian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 15.33  or more in 90 days
 19.40 90 days 15.33 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian Solar to drop to $ 15.33  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Canadian Solar probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Canadian Solar price to stay between $ 15.33  and its current price of $19.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.58 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.82 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Canadian Solar will likely underperform. Additionally Canadian Solar has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Canadian Solar Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Canadian Solar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Solar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canadian Solar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.8519.3722.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.4624.7328.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
15.6319.1522.67
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
35.8439.3843.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Canadian Solar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Canadian Solar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Canadian Solar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Canadian Solar.

Canadian Solar Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Canadian Solar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Canadian Solar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Canadian Solar, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Canadian Solar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.7
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.82
σ
Overall volatility
2.15
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Canadian Solar Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Canadian Solar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Canadian Solar can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Canadian Solar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Canadian Solar has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Canadian Solar is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Canadian Solar has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Canadian Solar

Canadian Solar Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Canadian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Canadian Solar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Solar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding72.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.9 B

Canadian Solar Technical Analysis

Canadian Solar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Canadian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Canadian Solar. In general, you should focus on analyzing Canadian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Canadian Solar Predictive Forecast Models

Canadian Solar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Canadian Solar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Canadian Solar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Canadian Solar

Checking the ongoing alerts about Canadian Solar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Canadian Solar help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Canadian Solar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Canadian Solar has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Canadian Solar is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Canadian Solar has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Canadian Solar
When determining whether Canadian Solar is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Canadian Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Canadian Solar Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Canadian Solar Stock:

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When running Canadian Solar's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Solar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Solar is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Solar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Solar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Solar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Solar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Canadian Solar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Canadian Solar. If investors know Canadian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Canadian Solar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.71)
Earnings Share
4.99
Revenue Per Share
116.461
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.14)
Return On Assets
0.0271
The market value of Canadian Solar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Canadian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Canadian Solar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Canadian Solar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Canadian Solar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Canadian Solar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Canadian Solar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canadian Solar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canadian Solar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.