Smallcap World Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 59.35
| CSPAX Fund | USD 64.19 1.13 1.79% |
Smallcap |
Smallcap World Target Price Odds to finish below 59.35
The tendency of Smallcap Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 59.35 or more in 90 days |
| 64.19 | 90 days | 59.35 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smallcap World to drop to $ 59.35 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Smallcap World Fund probability density function shows the probability of Smallcap Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smallcap World price to stay between $ 59.35 and its current price of $64.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.96 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.17 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Smallcap World will likely underperform. Additionally Smallcap World Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Smallcap World Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smallcap World
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smallcap World. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smallcap World's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smallcap World Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smallcap World is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smallcap World's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smallcap World Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smallcap World within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Smallcap World Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smallcap World for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smallcap World can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -7.0% | |
| Smallcap World holds about 12.55% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Smallcap World Technical Analysis
Smallcap World's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smallcap Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smallcap World Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smallcap Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smallcap World Predictive Forecast Models
Smallcap World's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smallcap World's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smallcap World's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smallcap World
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smallcap World for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smallcap World help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -7.0% | |
| Smallcap World holds about 12.55% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out Smallcap World Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Smallcap World Correlation, Smallcap World Hype Analysis, Smallcap World Volatility, Smallcap World History as well as Smallcap World Performance. Note that the Smallcap World information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Smallcap World's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.