Citic Resources Holdings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.0
CTJHY Stock | USD 12.06 0.23 1.87% |
CITIC |
CITIC Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 0.0
The tendency of CITIC Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.00 or more in 90 days |
12.06 | 90 days | 0.00 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CITIC Resources to drop to $ 0.00 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CITIC Resources Holdings probability density function shows the probability of CITIC Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CITIC Resources Holdings price to stay between $ 0.00 and its current price of $12.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon CITIC Resources has a beta of 0.33 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CITIC Resources average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CITIC Resources Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CITIC Resources Holdings has an alpha of 0.443, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CITIC Resources Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for CITIC Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CITIC Resources Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CITIC Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CITIC Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CITIC Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CITIC Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CITIC Resources Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CITIC Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
CITIC Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CITIC Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CITIC Resources Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.CITIC Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
CITIC Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CITIC Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CITIC Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CITIC Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.9 B |
CITIC Resources Technical Analysis
CITIC Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CITIC Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CITIC Resources Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing CITIC Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CITIC Resources Predictive Forecast Models
CITIC Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many CITIC Resources' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CITIC Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CITIC Resources Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about CITIC Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CITIC Resources Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CITIC Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Check out CITIC Resources Backtesting, CITIC Resources Valuation, CITIC Resources Correlation, CITIC Resources Hype Analysis, CITIC Resources Volatility, CITIC Resources History as well as CITIC Resources Performance. Note that the CITIC Resources Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CITIC Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for CITIC Pink Sheet analysis
When running CITIC Resources' price analysis, check to measure CITIC Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CITIC Resources is operating at the current time. Most of CITIC Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CITIC Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CITIC Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CITIC Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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