Cvr Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 40.16

CVI Stock  USD 35.66  0.79  2.27%   
CVR Energy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on CVR Energy. Implied volatility approximates the future value of CVR Energy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in CVR Energy over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on CVR Energy's common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 14:19:33 for $1.57 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.5, and an ask price of $1.65. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 36.01. View All CVR options

Closest to current price CVR long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

CVR Energy's future price is the expected price of CVR Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CVR Energy performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CVR Energy Backtesting, CVR Energy Valuation, CVR Energy Correlation, CVR Energy Hype Analysis, CVR Energy Volatility, CVR Energy History as well as CVR Energy Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in CVR Stock please use our How to Invest in CVR Energy guide.
  
As of now, CVR Energy's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is decreasing as compared to previous years. The CVR Energy's current Price To Book Ratio is estimated to increase to 4.06, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 3.76. Please specify CVR Energy's target price for which you would like CVR Energy odds to be computed.

CVR Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 40.16

The tendency of CVR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 40.16  after 90 days
 35.66 90 days 40.16 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CVR Energy to stay under $ 40.16  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This CVR Energy probability density function shows the probability of CVR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CVR Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 35.66  and $ 40.16  at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.38 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.04 suggesting CVR Energy market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, CVR Energy is expected to follow. Additionally CVR Energy has an alpha of 0.0987, implying that it can generate a 0.0987 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CVR Energy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CVR Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVR Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CVR Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.4535.6637.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.0434.2536.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
33.1535.3637.57
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
29.7332.6736.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CVR Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CVR Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CVR Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CVR Energy.

CVR Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CVR Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CVR Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CVR Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CVR Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.1
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.04
σ
Overall volatility
2.14
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

CVR Energy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CVR Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CVR Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CVR Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 11th of March 2024 CVR Energy paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Purchases 31472 Shares of CVR Energy, Inc. - Defense World

CVR Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CVR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CVR Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CVR Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding100.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments581 M

CVR Energy Technical Analysis

CVR Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CVR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CVR Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing CVR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CVR Energy Predictive Forecast Models

CVR Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many CVR Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CVR Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CVR Energy

Checking the ongoing alerts about CVR Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CVR Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CVR Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 11th of March 2024 CVR Energy paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Purchases 31472 Shares of CVR Energy, Inc. - Defense World
When determining whether CVR Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CVR Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cvr Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cvr Energy Stock:
Check out CVR Energy Backtesting, CVR Energy Valuation, CVR Energy Correlation, CVR Energy Hype Analysis, CVR Energy Volatility, CVR Energy History as well as CVR Energy Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in CVR Stock please use our How to Invest in CVR Energy guide.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running CVR Energy's price analysis, check to measure CVR Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CVR Energy is operating at the current time. Most of CVR Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CVR Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CVR Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CVR Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CVR Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CVR Energy. If investors know CVR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CVR Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.19)
Dividend Share
2
Earnings Share
7.65
Revenue Per Share
92.01
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.18)
The market value of CVR Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CVR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CVR Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CVR Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CVR Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CVR Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CVR Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CVR Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CVR Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.