CVS Health Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 68.64

CVS -- USA Stock  

USD 73.08  0.75  1.02%

CVS Health probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of CVS Health Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify CVS Health time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like CVS Health odds to be computed. Check also CVS Health Backtesting, CVS Health Valuation, CVS Health Correlation, CVS Health Hype Analysis, CVS Health Volatility, CVS Health History as well as CVS Health Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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CVS Health Target Price Odds to finish below 68.64

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 68.64  or more in 30 days
 73.08 30 days 68.64  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of CVS Health to drop to $ 68.64  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This CVS Health Corporation probability density function shows the probability of CVS Health Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of CVS Health price to stay between $ 68.64  and its current price of $73.08 at the end of the 30-day period is about 9.33%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, CVS Health has beta of 0.2862 . This suggests as returns on market go up, CVS Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding CVS Health Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CVS Health Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 CVS Health Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.19
β
Beta against DOW=0.29
σ
Overall volatility
=3.11
Ir
Information ratio =0.02

CVS Health Alerts

CVS Health Alerts and Suggestions

CVS Health generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
CVS Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance
CVS Health has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.nysetradingnews.com: Exercise or conversion by Lisa Bisaccia of 7764 shares of CVS Health subject to Rule 16b-3

Price Density Drivers

CVS Health Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out5.75%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.00
Short Percent Of Float5.76%
Float Shares1.02B
Shares Short Prior Month52M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day10M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month7.22M
Date Short InterestSeptember 28, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.68%
Check also CVS Health Backtesting, CVS Health Valuation, CVS Health Correlation, CVS Health Hype Analysis, CVS Health Volatility, CVS Health History as well as CVS Health Performance. Please also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
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