Chevron Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 117.18

Chevron Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 114.72  1.19  1.03%

Chevron probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Chevron Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Chevron time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Chevron odds to be computed. Check also Chevron Backtesting, Chevron Valuation, Chevron Correlation, Chevron Hype Analysis, Chevron Volatility, Chevron History as well as Chevron Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Chevron Target Price Odds to finish below 117.18

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 114.72 30 days 117.18  about 26.3% about 73.03%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Chevron to stay under $ 117.18  after 30 days from now is about 73.03%. Probability of Chevron price to stay between its current price of $ 114.72  and $ 117.18  at the end of the 30-day period is about 58.42%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Chevron Corporation has beta of -0.0854 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Chevron are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Chevron Corporation is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Chevron Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
73.0%
Odds to stay under $ 117.18  after 30 days
 Chevron Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.13
βBeta against DOW=0.09
σ
Overall volatility
=1.48
 IrInformation ratio =0.16