Chevron Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 117.18

Chevron Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 112.59  2.70  2.46%

Chevron probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Chevron Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Chevron time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Chevron odds to be computed. Check also Chevron Backtesting, Chevron Valuation, Chevron Correlation, Chevron Hype Analysis, Chevron Volatility, Chevron History as well as Chevron Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Chevron Target Price Odds to finish below 117.18

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 112.59 30 days 117.18  about 54.14% about 45.66%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Chevron to stay under $ 117.18  after 30 days from now is about 45.66%. Probability of Chevron price to stay between its current price of $ 112.59  and $ 117.18  at the end of the 30-day period is about 21.83%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.0486 . This suggests Chevron Corporation market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Chevron is expected to follow. Additionally Chevron Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
46.0%
Odds to stay under $ 117.18  after 30 days
 Chevron Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.52
β
Beta against DOW=1.05
σ
Overall volatility
=7.63
Ir
Information ratio =0.25