Chevron Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 128.9

Chevron Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 122.54  1.68  1.35%

Chevron probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Chevron Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Chevron time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Chevron odds to be computed. Check also Chevron Backtesting, Chevron Valuation, Chevron Correlation, Chevron Hype Analysis, Chevron Volatility, Chevron History as well as Chevron Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Chevron Target Price Odds to finish over 128.9

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 122.54 30 days 128.90  near 1% close to 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Chevron to move over $ 128.90  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Chevron Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Chevron Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Chevron price to stay between its current price of $ 122.54  and $ 128.90  at the end of the 30-day period is about 5.64%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Chevron has beta of 0.0835 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Chevron average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Chevron Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Chevron Corporation has an alpha of 0.2247817485227273 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2247817485227273% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to move over $ 128.90  or more in 30 days
 Chevron Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.22
β
Beta against DOW=0.0835
σ
Overall volatility
=3.80
Ir
Information ratio =0.18

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Check also Chevron Backtesting, Chevron Valuation, Chevron Correlation, Chevron Hype Analysis, Chevron Volatility, Chevron History as well as Chevron Performance. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.