Curtiss Wright Probability of Target Price

Curtiss Wright Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 112.9  0.64  0.56%

Curtiss Wright probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Curtiss Wright Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Curtiss Wright time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Curtiss Wright odds to be computed. Check also Curtiss Wright Backtesting, Curtiss Wright Valuation, Curtiss Wright Correlation, Curtiss Wright Hype Analysis, Curtiss Wright Volatility, Curtiss Wright History as well as Curtiss Wright Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 112.9 30 days 105.52  about 66.18% about 33.53%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Curtiss Wright to drop to $ 105.52  or more in 30 days from now is about 33.53%. Probability of Curtiss Wright price to stay between $ 105.52  and its current price of $112.9 at the end of the 30-day period is about 59.29%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Curtiss Wright has beta of 0.3888 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Curtiss Wright average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Curtiss Wright Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Curtiss Wright Corporation has an alpha of 0.4252 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4252% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
34.0%
Odds to drop to $ 105.52  or more in 30 days
 Curtiss Wright Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.43 
βBeta against DOW= 0.39 
σ
Overall volatility
= 3.88 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.35