Deutsche Bank Ag Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.39

DB Stock  USD 14.63  0.19  1.28%   
Deutsche Bank's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Deutsche Bank AG. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Deutsche Bank based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Deutsche Bank AG over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-22 CALL at $14.5 is a CALL option contract on Deutsche Bank's common stock with a strick price of 14.5 expiring on 2024-03-22. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-14 at 10:27:00 for $0.53 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.5. The implied volatility as of the 18th of March 2024 is 31.48. View All Deutsche options

Closest to current price Deutsche long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Deutsche Bank's future price is the expected price of Deutsche Bank instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Deutsche Bank AG performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Deutsche Bank Backtesting, Deutsche Bank Valuation, Deutsche Bank Correlation, Deutsche Bank Hype Analysis, Deutsche Bank Volatility, Deutsche Bank History as well as Deutsche Bank Performance.
  
At present, Deutsche Bank's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 5.22, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 5.73. Please specify Deutsche Bank's target price for which you would like Deutsche Bank odds to be computed.

Deutsche Bank Target Price Odds to finish over 18.39

The tendency of Deutsche Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 18.39  or more in 90 days
 14.63 90 days 18.39 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Deutsche Bank to move over $ 18.39  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Deutsche Bank AG probability density function shows the probability of Deutsche Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Deutsche Bank AG price to stay between its current price of $ 14.63  and $ 18.39  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.03 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.17 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Deutsche Bank will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0702, implying that it can generate a 0.0702 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Deutsche Bank Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Deutsche Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Bank AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deutsche Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Deutsche Bank in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.9114.6316.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.2212.9414.66
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.3415.0516.77
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.6611.7113.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Deutsche Bank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Deutsche Bank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Deutsche Bank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Deutsche Bank AG.

Deutsche Bank Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Deutsche Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Deutsche Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Deutsche Bank AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Deutsche Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.17
σ
Overall volatility
0.54
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Deutsche Bank Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Deutsche Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Deutsche Bank AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Deutsche Bank AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from fnlondon.com: Deutsche Bank cuts top investment banker bonuses by 20

Deutsche Bank Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Deutsche Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Deutsche Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deutsche Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments178.4 B

Deutsche Bank Technical Analysis

Deutsche Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Deutsche Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Deutsche Bank AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Deutsche Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Deutsche Bank Predictive Forecast Models

Deutsche Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Deutsche Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Deutsche Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Deutsche Bank AG

Checking the ongoing alerts about Deutsche Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Deutsche Bank AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Deutsche Bank AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from fnlondon.com: Deutsche Bank cuts top investment banker bonuses by 20
When determining whether Deutsche Bank AG offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Deutsche Bank's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Deutsche Bank Ag Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Deutsche Bank Ag Stock:
Check out Deutsche Bank Backtesting, Deutsche Bank Valuation, Deutsche Bank Correlation, Deutsche Bank Hype Analysis, Deutsche Bank Volatility, Deutsche Bank History as well as Deutsche Bank Performance.
Note that the Deutsche Bank AG information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Deutsche Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

Complementary Tools for Deutsche Stock analysis

When running Deutsche Bank's price analysis, check to measure Deutsche Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Deutsche Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Deutsche Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Deutsche Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Deutsche Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Deutsche Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Deutsche Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Deutsche Bank. If investors know Deutsche will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Deutsche Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.22)
Dividend Share
0.45
Earnings Share
3.03
Revenue Per Share
13.264
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.062
The market value of Deutsche Bank AG is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Deutsche that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Deutsche Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Deutsche Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Deutsche Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Deutsche Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Deutsche Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Deutsche Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Deutsche Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.