Deere Probability of Target Price

Deere Company -- USA Stock  

USD 128.52  0.63  0.49%

Deere probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Deere Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Deere time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Deere odds to be computed. Additionally see Deere Backtesting, Deere Valuation, Deere Correlation, Deere Hype Analysis, Deere Volatility, Deere History as well as Deere Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 128.52 30 days 128.33  about 24.85% about 74.64%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Deere to drop to $ 128.33  or more in 30 days from now is about 74.64%. Probability of Deere Company price to stay between $ 128.33  and its current price of $128.52 at the end of the 30-day period is roughly 2.78%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Deere has beta of 0.4982 suggesting as returns on market go up, Deere average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Deere Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Deere Company has an alpha of 0.0568 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0568% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
75.0%
Odds to drop to $ 128.33  or more in 30 days
 Deere Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.0568 
βBeta against DOW= 0.5 
σ
Overall volatility
= 2.1 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.0614)