Digimarc Probability of Target Price

Digimarc Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 36.75  0.2  0.55%

Digimarc probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Digimarc Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Digimarc time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Digimarc odds to be computed. Additionally see Digimarc Backtesting, Digimarc Valuation, Digimarc Correlation, Digimarc Hype Analysis, Digimarc Volatility, Digimarc History as well as Digimarc Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 36.75 30 days 36.35  about 27.51% about 72.28%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Digimarc to drop to $ 36.35  or more in 30 days from now is about 72.28%. Probability of Digimarc price to stay between $ 36.35  and its current price of $36.75 at the end of the 30-day period is about 7.26%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Digimarc Corporation has beta of -1.5521 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Digimarc Corporation are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Digimarc is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Digimarc Corporation has an alpha of 0.7075 implying that it can potentially generate 0.7075% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
72.0%
Odds to drop to $ 36.35  or more in 30 days
 Digimarc Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.71 
βBeta against DOW=(1.55) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.7 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.17