Digimarc Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 36.35

Digimarc Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 36.2  0.45  1.26%

Digimarc probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Digimarc Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Digimarc time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Digimarc odds to be computed. Additionally see Digimarc Backtesting, Digimarc Valuation, Digimarc Correlation, Digimarc Hype Analysis, Digimarc Volatility, Digimarc History as well as Digimarc Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Digimarc Target Price Odds to finish below 36.35

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 36.2 30 days 36.35  about 61.38% about 38.31%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Digimarc to stay under $ 36.35  after 30 days from now is about 38.31%. Probability of Digimarc price to stay between its current price of $ 36.2  and $ 36.35  at the end of the 30-day period is nearly 4.39%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Digimarc has beta of 0.0174 suggesting as returns on market go up, Digimarc average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Digimarc Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Digimarc Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
38.0%
Odds to stay under $ 36.35  after 30 days
 Digimarc Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.03
βBeta against DOW=0.0174
σ
Overall volatility
=1.28
 IrInformation ratio =0.13