Estee Lauder Companies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 140.3

EL Stock  USD 145.04  5.73  4.11%   
Estee Lauder's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Estee Lauder Companies. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Estee Lauder based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Estee Lauder Companies over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $145.0 is a CALL option contract on Estee Lauder's common stock with a strick price of 145.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:52:54 for $0.6 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.9, and an ask price of $1.0. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 30.7. View All Estee options

Closest to current price Estee long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Estee Lauder's future price is the expected price of Estee Lauder instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Estee Lauder Companies performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Estee Lauder Backtesting, Estee Lauder Valuation, Estee Lauder Correlation, Estee Lauder Hype Analysis, Estee Lauder Volatility, Estee Lauder History as well as Estee Lauder Performance.
  
At this time, Estee Lauder's Price Earnings Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to rise to 38.37 this year, although Price Book Value Ratio will most likely fall to 6.85. Please specify Estee Lauder's target price for which you would like Estee Lauder odds to be computed.

Estee Lauder Target Price Odds to finish over 140.3

The tendency of Estee Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 140.30  in 90 days
 145.04 90 days 140.30 
about 56.56
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Estee Lauder to stay above $ 140.30  in 90 days from now is about 56.56 (This Estee Lauder Companies probability density function shows the probability of Estee Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Estee Lauder Companies price to stay between $ 140.30  and its current price of $145.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.46 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.22 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Estee Lauder will likely underperform. Additionally Estee Lauder Companies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Estee Lauder Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Estee Lauder

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Estee Lauder Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Estee Lauder's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
142.48144.95147.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
130.54163.95166.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
136.82139.29141.76
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
168.12184.75205.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Estee Lauder. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Estee Lauder's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Estee Lauder's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Estee Lauder Companies.

Estee Lauder Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Estee Lauder is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Estee Lauder's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Estee Lauder Companies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Estee Lauder within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.22
σ
Overall volatility
7.87
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Estee Lauder Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Estee Lauder for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Estee Lauder Companies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of March 2024 Estee Lauder paid $ 0.66 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Este Lauder Companies Insiders Sell US4.6m Of Stock, Possibly Signalling Caution

Estee Lauder Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Estee Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Estee Lauder's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Estee Lauder's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding360.9 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Estee Lauder Technical Analysis

Estee Lauder's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Estee Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Estee Lauder Companies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Estee Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Estee Lauder Predictive Forecast Models

Estee Lauder's time-series forecasting models is one of many Estee Lauder's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Estee Lauder's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Estee Lauder Companies

Checking the ongoing alerts about Estee Lauder for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Estee Lauder Companies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of March 2024 Estee Lauder paid $ 0.66 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Este Lauder Companies Insiders Sell US4.6m Of Stock, Possibly Signalling Caution
When determining whether Estee Lauder Companies is a strong investment it is important to analyze Estee Lauder's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Estee Lauder's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Estee Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Estee Stock analysis

When running Estee Lauder's price analysis, check to measure Estee Lauder's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Estee Lauder is operating at the current time. Most of Estee Lauder's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Estee Lauder's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Estee Lauder's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Estee Lauder to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Estee Lauder's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Estee Lauder. If investors know Estee will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Estee Lauder listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.20)
Dividend Share
2.64
Earnings Share
1.29
Revenue Per Share
42.303
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
The market value of Estee Lauder Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Estee that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Estee Lauder's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Estee Lauder's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Estee Lauder's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Estee Lauder's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Estee Lauder's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Estee Lauder is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Estee Lauder's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.