El Al (Israel) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 90.4

ELAL Stock   474.90  17.20  3.50%   
El Al's future price is the expected price of El Al instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of El Al Israel performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out El Al Backtesting, El Al Valuation, El Al Correlation, El Al Hype Analysis, El Al Volatility, El Al History as well as El Al Performance.
  
Please specify El Al's target price for which you would like El Al odds to be computed.

El Al Target Price Odds to finish over 90.4

The tendency of ELAL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  90.40  in 90 days
 474.90 90 days 90.40 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of El Al to stay above  90.40  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This El Al Israel probability density function shows the probability of ELAL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of El Al Israel price to stay between  90.40  and its current price of 474.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 83.37 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon El Al has a beta of 0.98 suggesting El Al Israel market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, El Al is expected to follow. Additionally El Al Israel has an alpha of 0.801, implying that it can generate a 0.8 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   El Al Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for El Al

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as El Al Israel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of El Al's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
489.02493.50497.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
444.15524.09528.57
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
504.26508.74513.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
487.93501.43514.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as El Al. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against El Al's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, El Al's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in El Al Israel.

El Al Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. El Al is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the El Al's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold El Al Israel, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of El Al within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.80
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.98
σ
Overall volatility
73.32
Ir
Information ratio 0.18

El Al Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of El Al for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for El Al Israel can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
El Al Israel appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
El Al Israel has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company has accumulated 4.84 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 879.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. El Al Israel has a current ratio of 0.4, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist El Al until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, El Al's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like El Al Israel sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ELAL to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about El Al's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 857.17 M. Net Loss for the year was (413.04 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (103.31 M).
El Al Israel has accumulated about 239.98 M in cash with (557 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.48.
Roughly 53.0% of El Al shares are held by company insiders

El Al Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ELAL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential El Al's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. El Al's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding168.8 M

El Al Technical Analysis

El Al's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ELAL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of El Al Israel. In general, you should focus on analyzing ELAL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

El Al Predictive Forecast Models

El Al's time-series forecasting models is one of many El Al's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary El Al's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about El Al Israel

Checking the ongoing alerts about El Al for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for El Al Israel help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
El Al Israel appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
El Al Israel has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company has accumulated 4.84 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 879.1, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. El Al Israel has a current ratio of 0.4, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist El Al until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, El Al's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like El Al Israel sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ELAL to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about El Al's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 857.17 M. Net Loss for the year was (413.04 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (103.31 M).
El Al Israel has accumulated about 239.98 M in cash with (557 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.48.
Roughly 53.0% of El Al shares are held by company insiders
Check out El Al Backtesting, El Al Valuation, El Al Correlation, El Al Hype Analysis, El Al Volatility, El Al History as well as El Al Performance.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for ELAL Stock analysis

When running El Al's price analysis, check to measure El Al's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy El Al is operating at the current time. Most of El Al's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of El Al's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move El Al's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of El Al to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between El Al's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if El Al is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, El Al's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.