Megapolitan Developments (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 256.0
| EMDE Stock | IDR 109.00 1.00 0.91% |
Megapolitan |
Megapolitan Developments Target Price Odds to finish below 256.0
The tendency of Megapolitan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 256.00 after 90 days |
| 109.00 | 90 days | 256.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Megapolitan Developments to stay under 256.00 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Megapolitan Developments Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Megapolitan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Megapolitan Developments price to stay between its current price of 109.00 and 256.00 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 suggesting Megapolitan Developments Tbk market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Megapolitan Developments is expected to follow. Additionally Megapolitan Developments Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Megapolitan Developments Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Megapolitan Developments
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Megapolitan Developments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Megapolitan Developments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Megapolitan Developments Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Megapolitan Developments is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Megapolitan Developments' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Megapolitan Developments Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Megapolitan Developments within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Megapolitan Developments Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Megapolitan Developments for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Megapolitan Developments can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Megapolitan Developments generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Megapolitan Developments Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Megapolitan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Megapolitan Developments' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Megapolitan Developments' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 79.7 B |
Megapolitan Developments Technical Analysis
Megapolitan Developments' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Megapolitan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Megapolitan Developments Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Megapolitan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Megapolitan Developments Predictive Forecast Models
Megapolitan Developments' time-series forecasting models is one of many Megapolitan Developments' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Megapolitan Developments' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Megapolitan Developments
Checking the ongoing alerts about Megapolitan Developments for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Megapolitan Developments help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Megapolitan Developments generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Megapolitan Developments Backtesting, Megapolitan Developments Valuation, Megapolitan Developments Correlation, Megapolitan Developments Hype Analysis, Megapolitan Developments Volatility, Megapolitan Developments History as well as Megapolitan Developments Performance. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Complementary Tools for Megapolitan Stock analysis
When running Megapolitan Developments' price analysis, check to measure Megapolitan Developments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Megapolitan Developments is operating at the current time. Most of Megapolitan Developments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Megapolitan Developments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Megapolitan Developments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Megapolitan Developments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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