Equillium Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.245

EQ Stock  USD 2.06  0.38  15.57%   
Equillium's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Equillium. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Equillium based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Equillium over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Equillium's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 14:33:01 for $0.2 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.4. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 171.02. View All Equillium options

Closest to current price Equillium long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Equillium's future price is the expected price of Equillium instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Equillium performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Equillium Backtesting, Equillium Valuation, Equillium Correlation, Equillium Hype Analysis, Equillium Volatility, Equillium History as well as Equillium Performance.
To learn how to invest in Equillium Stock, please use our How to Invest in Equillium guide.
  
At this time, Equillium's Price Book Value Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price To Book Ratio is likely to grow to 1.53, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to drop 0.02. Please specify Equillium's target price for which you would like Equillium odds to be computed.

Equillium Target Price Odds to finish over 4.245

The tendency of Equillium Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 4.25  or more in 90 days
 2.06 90 days 4.25 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Equillium to move over $ 4.25  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Equillium probability density function shows the probability of Equillium Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Equillium price to stay between its current price of $ 2.06  and $ 4.25  at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.54 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.82 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Equillium will likely underperform. Moreover Equillium has an alpha of 1.6125, implying that it can generate a 1.61 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Equillium Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Equillium

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Equillium. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Equillium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.091.7112.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.173.5014.43
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.052.4813.42
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.288.008.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Equillium. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Equillium's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Equillium's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Equillium.

Equillium Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Equillium is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Equillium's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Equillium, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Equillium within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
1.61
β
Beta against NYSE Composite4.82
σ
Overall volatility
0.85
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

Equillium Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Equillium for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Equillium can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Equillium is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Equillium appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company generated the yearly revenue of 36.08 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (13.34 M) with gross profit of 15.76 M.
Equillium reports about 57.56 M in cash with (21.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.68.
Equillium has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Little Excitement Around Equillium, Inc.s Revenues

Equillium Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Equillium Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Equillium's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Equillium's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding34.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments40.9 M

Equillium Technical Analysis

Equillium's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Equillium Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Equillium. In general, you should focus on analyzing Equillium Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Equillium Predictive Forecast Models

Equillium's time-series forecasting models is one of many Equillium's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Equillium's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Equillium

Checking the ongoing alerts about Equillium for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Equillium help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Equillium is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Equillium appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company generated the yearly revenue of 36.08 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (13.34 M) with gross profit of 15.76 M.
Equillium reports about 57.56 M in cash with (21.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.68.
Equillium has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Little Excitement Around Equillium, Inc.s Revenues
When determining whether Equillium is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Equillium Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Equillium Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Equillium Stock:
Check out Equillium Backtesting, Equillium Valuation, Equillium Correlation, Equillium Hype Analysis, Equillium Volatility, Equillium History as well as Equillium Performance.
To learn how to invest in Equillium Stock, please use our How to Invest in Equillium guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for Equillium Stock analysis

When running Equillium's price analysis, check to measure Equillium's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Equillium is operating at the current time. Most of Equillium's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Equillium's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Equillium's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Equillium to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Equillium's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Equillium. If investors know Equillium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Equillium listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.22)
Revenue Per Share
1.039
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.42)
Return On Assets
(0.14)
Return On Equity
(0.49)
The market value of Equillium is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Equillium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Equillium's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Equillium's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Equillium's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Equillium's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Equillium's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Equillium is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Equillium's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.