Eros International Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 14.3

EROS -- USA Stock  

USD 12.30  0.15  1.20%

Eros International probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Eros International Plc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Eros International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Eros International odds to be computed. Additionally see Eros International Backtesting, Eros International Valuation, Eros International Correlation, Eros International Hype Analysis, Eros International Volatility, Eros International History as well as Eros International Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Eros International Target Price Odds to finish below 14.3

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 14.30  after 30 days
 12.30 30 days 14.30  CLOSE TO 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Eros International to stay under $ 14.30  after 30 days from now is close to 99% (This Eros International Plc probability density function shows the probability of Eros International Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Eros International Plc price to stay between its current price of $ 12.30  and $ 14.30  at the end of the 30-day period is about 39.58%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.8883 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Eros International will likely underperform. Additionally Eros International Plc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Eros International Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.23
β
Beta against DOW=1.89
σ
Overall volatility
=0.77
Ir
Information ratio =0.02

Eros International Alerts

Eros International Alerts and Suggestions

Eros International generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Eros International has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported previous year revenue of 260.63 M. Net Loss for the year was (34.84 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 126.55 M.
About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.schaeffersresearch.com: SP, Nasdaq Set to Snap Losing Streaks as Dow Lags

Price Density Drivers

Eros International Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out13.37%
Short Percent Of Float28.77%
Float Shares34.14M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day530.81k
Shares Short Prior Month10.4M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month358.78k
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2018
Additionally see Eros International Backtesting, Eros International Valuation, Eros International Correlation, Eros International Hype Analysis, Eros International Volatility, Eros International History as well as Eros International Performance. Please also try Pattern Recognition module to use different pattern recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
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