Eros International Probability of Target Price

Eros International Plc -- USA Stock  

USD 13.6  0.3  2.16%

Eros International probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Eros International Plc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Eros International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Eros International odds to be computed. Additionally see Eros International Backtesting, Eros International Valuation, Eros International Correlation, Eros International Hype Analysis, Eros International Volatility, Eros International History as well as Eros International Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 13.6 30 days 14.3  about 55.48% about 44.26%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Eros International to stay under $ 14.3  after 30 days from now is about 44.26%. Probability of Eros International Plc price to stay between its current price of $ 13.6  and $ 14.3  at the end of the 30-day period is about 32.98%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Eros International Plc has beta of -6.6542 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Eros International Plc are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Eros International is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Eros International Plc has an alpha of 0.2242 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2242% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
44.0%
Odds to stay under $ 14.3  after 30 days
 Eros International Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.22 
βBeta against DOW=(6.65) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 0.66 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.18)