Eros International Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 14.3

Eros International Plc -- USA Stock  

USD 11.05  0.45  4.25%

Eros International probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Eros International Plc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Eros International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Eros International odds to be computed. Additionally see Eros International Backtesting, Eros International Valuation, Eros International Correlation, Eros International Hype Analysis, Eros International Volatility, Eros International History as well as Eros International Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Eros International Target Price Odds to finish below 14.3

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 11.05 30 days 14.3  roughly 2.29% about 98.0%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Eros International to stay under $ 14.3  after 30 days from now is about 98.0%. Probability of Eros International Plc price to stay between its current price of $ 11.05  and $ 14.3  at the end of the 30-day period is about 92.27%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Eros International has beta of 0.7803 suggesting as returns on market go up, Eros International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Eros International Plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Eros International Plc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
98.0%
Odds to stay under $ 14.3  after 30 days
 Eros International Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.68
βBeta against DOW=0.78
σ
Overall volatility
=0.9
 IrInformation ratio =0.18