Escalade Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.75
| ESCA Stock | USD 14.07 0.60 4.09% |
Closest to current price Escalade long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Escalade |
Escalade Incorporated Target Price Odds to finish below 13.75
The tendency of Escalade Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.75 or more in 90 days |
| 14.07 | 90 days | 13.75 | about 25.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Escalade Incorporated to drop to $ 13.75 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.31 (This Escalade Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Escalade Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Escalade Incorporated price to stay between $ 13.75 and its current price of $14.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.44 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.31 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Escalade Incorporated will likely underperform. Additionally Escalade Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Escalade Incorporated Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Escalade Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Escalade Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Escalade Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Escalade Incorporated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Escalade Incorporated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Escalade Incorporated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Escalade Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Escalade Incorporated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.43 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Escalade Incorporated Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Escalade Incorporated for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Escalade Incorporated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Escalade Incorporated generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Escalade Incorporated has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from newswire.com: Robert E. Griffin, Longtime Escalade CEO and Chairman, Has Passed Away at Age 89 |
Escalade Incorporated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Escalade Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Escalade Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Escalade Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16 K |
Escalade Incorporated Technical Analysis
Escalade Incorporated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Escalade Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Escalade Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Escalade Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Escalade Incorporated Predictive Forecast Models
Escalade Incorporated's time-series forecasting models is one of many Escalade Incorporated's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Escalade Incorporated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Escalade Incorporated
Checking the ongoing alerts about Escalade Incorporated for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Escalade Incorporated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Escalade Incorporated generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Escalade Incorporated has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from newswire.com: Robert E. Griffin, Longtime Escalade CEO and Chairman, Has Passed Away at Age 89 |
Check out Escalade Incorporated Backtesting, Escalade Incorporated Valuation, Escalade Incorporated Correlation, Escalade Incorporated Hype Analysis, Escalade Incorporated Volatility, Escalade Incorporated History as well as Escalade Incorporated Performance. For information on how to trade Escalade Stock refer to our How to Trade Escalade Stock guide.Note that the Escalade Incorporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Escalade Incorporated's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Complementary Tools for Escalade Stock analysis
When running Escalade Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure Escalade Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Escalade Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of Escalade Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Escalade Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Escalade Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Escalade Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Escalade Incorporated's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Escalade Incorporated. If investors know Escalade will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Escalade Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.072 | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 0.71 | Revenue Per Share 19.219 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Escalade Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Escalade that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Escalade Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Escalade Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Escalade Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Escalade Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Escalade Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Escalade Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Escalade Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.