Extra Space Storage Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 85.15

EXR Stock  USD 146.75  6.29  4.48%   
Extra Space's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Extra Space Storage. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Extra Space based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Extra Space Storage over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $145.0 is a CALL option contract on Extra Space's common stock with a strick price of 145.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:37:31 for $4.8 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.5, and an ask price of $5.1. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 26.77. View All Extra options

Closest to current price Extra long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Extra Space's future price is the expected price of Extra Space instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Extra Space Storage performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Extra Space Backtesting, Extra Space Valuation, Extra Space Correlation, Extra Space Hype Analysis, Extra Space Volatility, Extra Space History as well as Extra Space Performance.
  
At this time, Extra Space's Price Book Value Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 22.15, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 6.09. Please specify Extra Space's target price for which you would like Extra Space odds to be computed.

Extra Space Target Price Odds to finish below 85.15

The tendency of Extra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 85.15  or more in 90 days
 146.75 90 days 85.15 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Extra Space to drop to $ 85.15  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Extra Space Storage probability density function shows the probability of Extra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Extra Space Storage price to stay between $ 85.15  and its current price of $146.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 56.51 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.73 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Extra Space will likely underperform. Additionally Extra Space Storage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Extra Space Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Extra Space

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Extra Space Storage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Extra Space's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
144.65146.20147.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
132.08150.25151.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
138.94140.49142.05
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
138.70152.42169.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Extra Space. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Extra Space's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Extra Space's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Extra Space Storage.

Extra Space Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Extra Space is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Extra Space's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Extra Space Storage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Extra Space within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.29
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.73
σ
Overall volatility
6.79
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Extra Space Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Extra Space for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Extra Space Storage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Extra Space Storage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from benzinga.com: PE Ratio Insights for Extra Space Storage

Extra Space Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Extra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Extra Space's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Extra Space's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding169.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments99.1 M

Extra Space Technical Analysis

Extra Space's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Extra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Extra Space Storage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Extra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Extra Space Predictive Forecast Models

Extra Space's time-series forecasting models is one of many Extra Space's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Extra Space's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Extra Space Storage

Checking the ongoing alerts about Extra Space for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Extra Space Storage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Extra Space Storage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from benzinga.com: PE Ratio Insights for Extra Space Storage
When determining whether Extra Space Storage is a strong investment it is important to analyze Extra Space's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Extra Space's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Extra Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running Extra Space's price analysis, check to measure Extra Space's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Extra Space is operating at the current time. Most of Extra Space's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Extra Space's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Extra Space's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Extra Space to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Extra Space's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Extra Space. If investors know Extra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Extra Space listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.35)
Dividend Share
6.48
Earnings Share
4.73
Revenue Per Share
15.454
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.572
The market value of Extra Space Storage is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Extra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Extra Space's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Extra Space's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Extra Space's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Extra Space's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Extra Space's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Extra Space is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Extra Space's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.