Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 10.61  0.15  1.39%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 10.61 30 days 10.61  about 79.25% about 20.59%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 79.25%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor has beta of 0.9089 suggesting Ford Motor Company market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Ford Motor is expected to follow. Additionally Ford Motor Company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
79.0%
Odds to move above current price in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.45
β
Beta against DOW=0.91
σ
Overall volatility
=0.60
Ir
Information ratio =0.2