Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 10.31

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.63  0.05  0.4%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish below 10.31

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 12.63 30 days 10.31  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to drop to $ 10.31  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 10.31  and its current price of $12.63 at the end of the 30-day period is about 86.98%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor has beta of 0.7946 suggesting as returns on market go up, Ford Motor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Ford Motor Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ford Motor Company has an alpha of 0.0073452425363636775 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0073452425363636775% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 10.31  or more in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.007345
βBeta against DOW=0.79
σ
Overall volatility
=0.24
 IrInformation ratio =0.05