Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 10.557059

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 11.04  0.03  0.27%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish over 10.557059

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 11.04 30 days 10.56  about 77.53% about 22.06%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to stay above $ 10.56  in 30 days from now is about 77.53%. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 10.56  and its current price of $11.04 at the end of the 30-day period is about 71.39%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor Company has beta of -0.0285 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Ford Motor are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Ford Motor Company is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ford Motor Company has an alpha of 0.10040648261363636 implying that it can potentially generate 0.10040648261363636% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Odds to stay above $ 10.56  in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.03
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.13