Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 10.61

F -- USA Stock  

USD 8.64  0.12  1.41%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish below 10.61

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 10.61  after 30 days
 8.64 30 days 10.61  CLOSE TO 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to stay under $ 10.61  after 30 days from now is close to 99% (This Ford Motor Company probability density function shows the probability of Ford Motor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between its current price of $ 8.64  and $ 10.61  at the end of the 30-day period is about 85.96%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor has beta of 0.7625 suggesting as returns on market go up, Ford Motor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Ford Motor Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ford Motor Company has an alpha of 0.0748 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0748% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Ford Motor Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.07
β
Beta against DOW=0.76
σ
Overall volatility
=0.40
Ir
Information ratio =0.042145

Ford Motor Alerts

Ford Motor Alerts and Suggestions

Ford Motor generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Ford Motor has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its interest payments
FORD MOTOR CO has accumulated about 23.61B in cash with (284.12M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.93.
Roughly 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Price Density Drivers

Ford Motor Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out2.95%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.60
Short Percent Of Float2.99%
Float Shares3.9B
Shares Short Prior Month130.63M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day44.94M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month48.05M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield6.94%
Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance. Please also try Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
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