Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 11.0

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.12  0.01  0.0824%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish over 11.0

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 12.12 30 days 11  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to stay above $ 11  in 30 days from now is close to 100%. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 11  and its current price of $12.12 at the end of the 30-day period is about 42.13%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor has beta of 0.9505 suggesting Ford Motor Company market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Ford Motor is expected to follow. Additionally Ford Motor Company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
> 99%
Odds to stay above $ 11  in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.03
βBeta against DOW=0.95
σ
Overall volatility
=0.13
 IrInformation ratio =0.03