Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 12.001912

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 13.23  0.07  0.53%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish below 12.001912

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 13.23 30 days 12  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to drop to $ 12  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 12  and its current price of $13.23 at the end of the 30-day period is roughly 96.0%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.5896 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Ford Motor will likely underperform. Additionally Ford Motor Company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 12  or more in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.14
β
Beta against DOW=1.59
σ
Overall volatility
=0.26
Ir
Information ratio =0.01