Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 12.001912

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.19  0.06  0.49%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish over 12.001912

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 12.19 30 days 12  about 86.2% about 13.29%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to stay above $ 12  in 30 days from now is about 86.2%. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 12  and its current price of $12.19 at the end of the 30-day period is about 49.6%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor Company has beta of -1.3344 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Ford Motor Company are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Ford Motor is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Ford Motor Company has an alpha of 0.04393723149090911 implying that it can potentially generate 0.04393723149090911% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Odds to stay above $ 12  in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over DOW
βBeta against DOW=1.33
Overall volatility
 IrInformation ratio =0.03