Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 15.01

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.13  0.06  0.5%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish over 15.01

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 12.13 30 days 15.01  close to zero percent close to 100%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to move over $ 15.01  or more in 30 days from now is close to zero percent. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between its current price of $ 12.13  and $ 15.01  at the end of the 30-day period is about 55.28%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor Company has beta of -1.2257 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Ford Motor Company are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Ford Motor is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Ford Motor Company has an alpha of 0.012796677413636368 implying that it can potentially generate 0.012796677413636368% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to move over $ 15.01  or more in 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over DOW
βBeta against DOW=1.23
Overall volatility
 IrInformation ratio =0.12