Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 6.31

F -- USA Stock  

USD 9.59  0.26  2.64%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish below 6.31

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 6.31  or more in 30 days
 9.59 30 days 6.31  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to drop to $ 6.31  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Ford Motor Company probability density function shows the probability of Ford Motor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 6.31  and its current price of $9.59 at the end of the 30-day period is about 48.97%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.7533 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Ford Motor will likely underperform. Additionally Ford Motor Company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Ford Motor Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.28
β
Beta against DOW=1.75
σ
Overall volatility
=0.23
Ir
Information ratio =0.12

Ford Motor Alerts

Ford Motor Alerts and Suggestions

Ford Motor generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Ford Motor has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Ford Motor has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its interest payments
FORD MOTOR CO has accumulated about 25.11 B in cash with (1.34 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.3.
Roughly 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Ollila Jorma J of 4378 shares of Ford Motor subject to Rule 16b-3

Price Density Drivers

Ford Motor Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out2.73%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.60
Short Percent Of Float2.78%
Float Shares3.91B
Shares Short Prior Month109.12M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day38.59M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month38.59M
Date Short InterestAugust 31, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield6.12%
Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
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