Fidelity Contrafund Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 98.7

FCNTX Fund  USD 19.00  0.05  0.26%   
Fidelity Contrafund's future price is the expected price of Fidelity Contrafund instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Fidelity Contrafund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Fidelity Contrafund Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Contrafund Correlation, Fidelity Contrafund Hype Analysis, Fidelity Contrafund Volatility, Fidelity Contrafund History as well as Fidelity Contrafund Performance.
  
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Fidelity Contrafund Target Price Odds to finish below 98.7

The tendency of Fidelity Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 98.70  after 90 days
 19.00 90 days 98.70 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelity Contrafund to stay under $ 98.70  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Fidelity Contrafund probability density function shows the probability of Fidelity Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fidelity Contrafund price to stay between its current price of $ 19.00  and $ 98.70  at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.53 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Fidelity Contrafund has a beta of -0.16. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Fidelity Contrafund are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Fidelity Contrafund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Fidelity Contrafund has an alpha of 0.283, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Fidelity Contrafund Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fidelity Contrafund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Contrafund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Contrafund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.0219.0019.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.6418.6219.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
18.1419.1220.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.9219.0019.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fidelity Contrafund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fidelity Contrafund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fidelity Contrafund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fidelity Contrafund.

Fidelity Contrafund Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fidelity Contrafund is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fidelity Contrafund's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fidelity Contrafund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fidelity Contrafund within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.28
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.16
σ
Overall volatility
1.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Fidelity Contrafund Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fidelity Contrafund for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fidelity Contrafund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund retains 97.49% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Fidelity Contrafund Technical Analysis

Fidelity Contrafund's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fidelity Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fidelity Contrafund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fidelity Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Fidelity Contrafund Predictive Forecast Models

Fidelity Contrafund's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fidelity Contrafund's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Fidelity Contrafund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fidelity Contrafund for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fidelity Contrafund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund retains 97.49% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Check out Fidelity Contrafund Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Contrafund Correlation, Fidelity Contrafund Hype Analysis, Fidelity Contrafund Volatility, Fidelity Contrafund History as well as Fidelity Contrafund Performance.
You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Fidelity Contrafund's price analysis, check to measure Fidelity Contrafund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fidelity Contrafund is operating at the current time. Most of Fidelity Contrafund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fidelity Contrafund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fidelity Contrafund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fidelity Contrafund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Fidelity Contrafund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fidelity Contrafund is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fidelity Contrafund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.