Fresenius Medical Care Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.56

FMS Stock  USD 19.36  0.45  2.38%   
Fresenius Medical's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Fresenius Medical Care. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Fresenius Medical based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Fresenius Medical Care over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $20.0 is a CALL option contract on Fresenius Medical's common stock with a strick price of 20.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-22 at 13:03:21 for $0.4 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.5. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 36.96. View All Fresenius options

Closest to current price Fresenius long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Fresenius Medical's future price is the expected price of Fresenius Medical instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Fresenius Medical Care performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Fresenius Medical Backtesting, Fresenius Medical Valuation, Fresenius Medical Correlation, Fresenius Medical Hype Analysis, Fresenius Medical Volatility, Fresenius Medical History as well as Fresenius Medical Performance.
  
At this time, Fresenius Medical's Price Earnings Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to gain to 0.52 in 2024, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 0.55 in 2024. Please specify Fresenius Medical's target price for which you would like Fresenius Medical odds to be computed.

Fresenius Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 41.56

The tendency of Fresenius Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 41.56  after 90 days
 19.36 90 days 41.56 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fresenius Medical to stay under $ 41.56  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Fresenius Medical Care probability density function shows the probability of Fresenius Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fresenius Medical Care price to stay between its current price of $ 19.36  and $ 41.56  at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.91 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Fresenius Medical has a beta of 0.95. This usually indicates Fresenius Medical Care market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Fresenius Medical is expected to follow. Additionally Fresenius Medical Care has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Fresenius Medical Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fresenius Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fresenius Medical Care. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fresenius Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.8819.3321.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.4219.8722.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.6319.0921.54
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.2720.0822.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fresenius Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fresenius Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fresenius Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fresenius Medical Care.

Fresenius Medical Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fresenius Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fresenius Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fresenius Medical Care, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fresenius Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.22
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.95
σ
Overall volatility
0.68
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Fresenius Medical Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fresenius Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fresenius Medical Care can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Fresenius Medical Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fresenius Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fresenius Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fresenius Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding586.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.5 B

Fresenius Medical Technical Analysis

Fresenius Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fresenius Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fresenius Medical Care. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fresenius Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Fresenius Medical Predictive Forecast Models

Fresenius Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fresenius Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fresenius Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Fresenius Medical Care

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fresenius Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fresenius Medical Care help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
When determining whether Fresenius Medical Care is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fresenius Medical's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fresenius Medical's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fresenius Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running Fresenius Medical's price analysis, check to measure Fresenius Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fresenius Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Fresenius Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fresenius Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fresenius Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fresenius Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fresenius Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fresenius Medical. If investors know Fresenius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fresenius Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.353
Dividend Share
1.19
Earnings Share
0.92
Revenue Per Share
33.1505
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Fresenius Medical Care is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fresenius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fresenius Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fresenius Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fresenius Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fresenius Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fresenius Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fresenius Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fresenius Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.