Fncb Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 8.92
| FNCB Stock | USD 5.58 0.07 1.27% |
Closest to current price FNCB long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
FNCB |
FNCB Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 8.92
The tendency of FNCB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 8.92 or more in 90 days |
| 5.58 | 90 days | 8.92 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FNCB Bancorp to move over $ 8.92 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This FNCB Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of FNCB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FNCB Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 5.58 and $ 8.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.81 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days FNCB Bancorp has a beta of -0.28. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FNCB Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FNCB Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FNCB Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. FNCB Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FNCB Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FNCB Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FNCB Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FNCB Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FNCB Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FNCB Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FNCB Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FNCB Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
FNCB Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FNCB Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FNCB Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FNCB Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FNCB Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 15th of March 2024 FNCB Bancorp paid $ 0.09 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
FNCB Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FNCB Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FNCB Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FNCB Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 107.9 M |
FNCB Bancorp Technical Analysis
FNCB Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FNCB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FNCB Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing FNCB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FNCB Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
FNCB Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many FNCB Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FNCB Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FNCB Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about FNCB Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FNCB Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FNCB Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FNCB Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 15th of March 2024 FNCB Bancorp paid $ 0.09 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Check out FNCB Bancorp Backtesting, FNCB Bancorp Valuation, FNCB Bancorp Correlation, FNCB Bancorp Hype Analysis, FNCB Bancorp Volatility, FNCB Bancorp History as well as FNCB Bancorp Performance. For information on how to trade FNCB Stock refer to our How to Trade FNCB Stock guide.Note that the FNCB Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FNCB Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for FNCB Stock analysis
When running FNCB Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure FNCB Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FNCB Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of FNCB Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FNCB Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FNCB Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FNCB Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FNCB Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FNCB Bancorp. If investors know FNCB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FNCB Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Dividend Share 0.36 | Earnings Share 0.66 | Revenue Per Share 2.668 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of FNCB Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FNCB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FNCB Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FNCB Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FNCB Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FNCB Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FNCB Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FNCB Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FNCB Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.