Fednat Holding Co Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.29

FNHCDelisted Stock  USD 0  0.00  0.00%   
Fednat Holding's future price is the expected price of Fednat Holding instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Fednat Holding Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.
  
Please specify Fednat Holding's target price for which you would like Fednat Holding odds to be computed.

Fednat Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 16.29

The tendency of Fednat Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 16.29  after 90 days
 0 90 days 16.29 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fednat Holding to stay under $ 16.29  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Fednat Holding Co probability density function shows the probability of Fednat Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fednat Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 0  and $ 16.29  at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.55 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 24.37 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fednat Holding will likely underperform. Moreover Fednat Holding Co has an alpha of 1.7941, implying that it can generate a 1.79 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Fednat Holding Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fednat Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fednat Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fednat Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.0000.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.0000.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
000
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fednat Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fednat Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fednat Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fednat Holding.

Fednat Holding Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fednat Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fednat Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fednat Holding Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fednat Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
1.79
β
Beta against NYSE Composite24.37
σ
Overall volatility
0.06
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Fednat Holding Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fednat Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fednat Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fednat Holding is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Fednat Holding has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Fednat Holding has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 245.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (103.1 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (54.49 M).
Fednat Holding Co currently holds about 87.36 M in cash with (191.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.99, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Fednat Holding Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fednat Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fednat Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fednat Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments411.1 M

Fednat Holding Technical Analysis

Fednat Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fednat Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fednat Holding Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fednat Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Fednat Holding Predictive Forecast Models

Fednat Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fednat Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fednat Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Fednat Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fednat Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fednat Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fednat Holding is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Fednat Holding has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Fednat Holding has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 245.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (103.1 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (54.49 M).
Fednat Holding Co currently holds about 87.36 M in cash with (191.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.99, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.
Note that the Fednat Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fednat Holding's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

Other Consideration for investing in Fednat Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Fednat Holding check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Fednat Holding's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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