Golden Agri Resources Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.283

GARPF Stock  USD 0.21  0.00  0.00%   
Golden Agri-Resources' future price is the expected price of Golden Agri-Resources instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Golden Agri Resources performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Golden Agri-Resources Backtesting, Golden Agri-Resources Valuation, Golden Agri-Resources Correlation, Golden Agri-Resources Hype Analysis, Golden Agri-Resources Volatility, Golden Agri-Resources History as well as Golden Agri-Resources Performance.
  
Please specify Golden Agri-Resources' target price for which you would like Golden Agri-Resources odds to be computed.

Golden Agri-Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 0.283

The tendency of Golden Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 0.28  after 90 days
 0.21 90 days 0.28 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Golden Agri-Resources to stay under $ 0.28  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Golden Agri Resources probability density function shows the probability of Golden Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Golden Agri-Resources price to stay between its current price of $ 0.21  and $ 0.28  at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.91 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Golden Agri-Resources has a beta of 0.86. This usually indicates Golden Agri Resources market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Golden Agri-Resources is expected to follow. Additionally Golden Agri Resources has an alpha of 0.1016, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Golden Agri-Resources Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Golden Agri-Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Agri-Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Agri-Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.213.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.173.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
00.213.86
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.210.210.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Golden Agri-Resources. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Golden Agri-Resources' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Golden Agri-Resources' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Golden Agri-Resources.

Golden Agri-Resources Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Golden Agri-Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Golden Agri-Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Golden Agri Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Golden Agri-Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.10
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.86
σ
Overall volatility
0.01
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Golden Agri-Resources Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Golden Agri-Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Golden Agri-Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Golden Agri-Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Golden Agri-Resources had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Golden Agri-Resources Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Golden Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Golden Agri-Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golden Agri-Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.7 B

Golden Agri-Resources Technical Analysis

Golden Agri-Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Golden Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Golden Agri Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Golden Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Golden Agri-Resources Predictive Forecast Models

Golden Agri-Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Golden Agri-Resources' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Golden Agri-Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Golden Agri-Resources

Checking the ongoing alerts about Golden Agri-Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Golden Agri-Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Golden Agri-Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Golden Agri-Resources had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

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When running Golden Agri-Resources' price analysis, check to measure Golden Agri-Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Agri-Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Agri-Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Agri-Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Agri-Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Agri-Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Golden Agri-Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golden Agri-Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golden Agri-Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.