Vaneck Junior Gold Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 32.38
| GDXJ Etf | USD 41.66 0.20 0.48% |
Closest to current price VanEck long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
VanEck |
VanEck Junior Target Price Odds to finish below 32.38
The tendency of VanEck Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 32.38 or more in 90 days |
| 41.66 | 90 days | 32.38 | about 15.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VanEck Junior to drop to $ 32.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.41 (This VanEck Junior Gold probability density function shows the probability of VanEck Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VanEck Junior Gold price to stay between $ 32.38 and its current price of $41.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.81 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the etf has the beta coefficient of 2.13 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, VanEck Junior will likely underperform. Additionally VanEck Junior Gold has an alpha of 0.1165, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VanEck Junior Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for VanEck Junior
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Junior Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Junior's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VanEck Junior Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VanEck Junior is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VanEck Junior's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VanEck Junior Gold, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VanEck Junior within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
VanEck Junior Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VanEck Junior for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VanEck Junior Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from talkmarkets.com: Most Take A Breather, But Not Miners | |
| The fund created three year return of -6.0% | |
| VanEck Junior Gold retains 99.91% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
VanEck Junior Technical Analysis
VanEck Junior's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VanEck Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VanEck Junior Gold. In general, you should focus on analyzing VanEck Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VanEck Junior Predictive Forecast Models
VanEck Junior's time-series forecasting models is one of many VanEck Junior's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VanEck Junior's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VanEck Junior Gold
Checking the ongoing alerts about VanEck Junior for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VanEck Junior Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from talkmarkets.com: Most Take A Breather, But Not Miners | |
| The fund created three year return of -6.0% | |
| VanEck Junior Gold retains 99.91% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Check out VanEck Junior Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, VanEck Junior Correlation, VanEck Junior Hype Analysis, VanEck Junior Volatility, VanEck Junior History as well as VanEck Junior Performance. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
The market value of VanEck Junior Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Junior's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Junior's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Junior's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Junior's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Junior's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Junior is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Junior's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.